#politics | Amy Walter and Domenico Montenaro on 2020 Democrats’ ‘volatility,’ impeachment politics

Domenico Montanaro:

Look, I think this is the time of year we need to start talking about paths to the nomination and not the time of year we talk about national polling.

You know, national polling is always sort of like a barometer of, you know, how well somebody might do or how people feel about them. But it’s not a national race. You know, if that were the case, then Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani would have been the 2008 nominees and ran away with it.

You have to have a path. And as Amy was laying out, Joe Biden does have a path still, even though he has this fractured, you know, quarter of the Democratic Party, it looks like. You know, if he were to win, place or show in Iowa, top three, kind of still be in the game in New Hampshire, he can retain what’s held him up, which is that 60 percent of African-American support.

And if he can do that, then he has a shot of winning in the South, where black voters make up the majority of Democratic voters. But that doesn’t mean that some other candidate can’t come along and take some of those voters away. If he finishes fourth or fifth in Iowa, that’s going to completely — could completely collapse his momentum, if there was any.

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